Image from Public Domain Picture
International tourism is heading towards a new record. A study developed by Deloitte and Google projects that the number of international trips could reach 2.4 billion by 2040, nearly one billion more than in 2019.
And the ranking of the world’s most popular destinations is also expected to change. Spain could overtake France to become the world’s most visited country, reaching around 110 million international visitors a year, compared with approximately 105 million projected for France.
Europe will remain the world’s leading tourism region, but new destinations and, above all, new traveller profiles are expected to reshape the global tourism landscape.
In 2025, France welcomed 102 million international tourists, while Spain received 96.8 million. The gap is narrowing, and projections from Deloitte and Google suggest that Spain could take the lead by 2040.
But this is not the only significant shift. Mexico is expected to enter the top five most visited countries, overtaking Italy, while Saudi Arabia, Indonesia and the United Arab Emirates could reach the global top 15.
New protagonists are also emerging on the other side of the journey. The growth of the middle class in emerging markets is expected to bring millions of new travellers into the international tourism market. India is one of the most significant examples: the number of international travellers from the country could increase fivefold by 2040.
Two billion four hundred million international trips represent far more than full planes and occupied hotel rooms. They signal a multibillion-dollar transformation across the entire economy built around tourism.
Hospitality, gastronomy, airlines, entertainment, retail and luxury brands will be facing a consumer who is more international, better informed and increasingly likely to come from a wider range of markets.
And there is an important paradox within this growth. The more people travel, the greater the pressure on the world’s most popular destinations. Sustainability, infrastructure, prices, overtourism and the quality of life of local communities are likely to become even more important issues for cities and businesses.
The challenge for tourism in 2040 may not simply be figuring out how to welcome more people.
It will be discovering how to grow without destroying the very things that make a destination desirable.
With 2.4 billion international trips projected for 2040, which destinations will truly be prepared to turn this growth into opportunity?
